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Can’t Miss or Just Got Lucky?

I used to wait for teams to fall behind early and then hammer comeback odds, and for a few weeks, it actually worked. Not always, but enough to make me feel like I had a system. I stopped worrying about the matchup or the situation and just trusted that "flow" I thought I was on. I’d be sitting there with three games open, fingers twitching, convinced that if I didn’t catch the next bet fast enough, the streak would vanish. Eventually I stumbled on this breakdown — https://lawbhoomi.com/hot-hand-why-bettors-chase-winning-streaks/ — and it hit a little too close to home. The way it explains how we mistake short-term success for actual skill made me rethink a lot. I wasn’t tracking bets, wasn’t sticking to strategy — just reacting. That rush of being “on fire” messes with how you see the game. Now I force myself to step back after two wins in a row. I’ll even skip a whole day if I feel like I’m getting sucked into the streak again. It’s hard, but better than chasing a feeling and losing control.

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th bes
th bes
Aug 02

Funny how quickly people start reading patterns into randomness. You win a few, and suddenly every bounce or ref call feels like it’s part of your momentum. It’s not always about logic — sometimes it’s just the adrenaline playing tricks on your thinking.

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